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畜牧業恐花光碳預算 學者籲少吃肉救地球
由 sumayuan 在 二, 12/09/2014 - 10:10 發表
畜牧業恐花光碳預算 學者籲少吃肉救地球
英國知名智庫皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）最新報告指出，
減少全世界龐大且不斷增加的肉食需求，是減緩氣候變遷的必要方法。
不過這份報告警告，政府和環團因為擔心引起消費者反彈，沒有任何相關的作為。
最大碳排來源 畜牧業跟不上減碳進度
報告中提到，全球畜牧業產生的溫室氣體比所有的汽車、飛機、火車和船隻加起來都還要多，
但根據易普索莫里（Ipsos MORI）的調查，
認為交通運輸是最大溫室氣體排放者的民眾，是畜牧業的兩倍。
家畜產生的碳排放大多來自牛羊打嗝和糞便，佔全球碳排的15%。
牛肉和乳製品則佔了畜牧業碳排的65%。
聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）近期發佈的重要氣候報告也指出，
改變飲食習慣能夠「顯著降低」碳排放，但目前聯合國沒有具體行動計畫。
調查主要作者Rob Bailey說，「避免災難性暖化跟減少乳肉品消耗有絕對關係，
但全世界毫無作為。森林砍伐和交通運輸已經有許多減碳對策，但是畜牧業完全跟不上
。因為一般觀念總認為，政府或公民社會不該干涉人們的生活和飲食方式。」
過去呼籲減少肉食的知名人士不多，且曾引發爭議，
包括聯合國氣候科學小組首席科學家和經濟學家史登爵士（Lord Stern）；
也有科學家提議課肉品稅來減少消費。不過根據調查的結論，
只要依照衛生相關當局的建議飲食，就能減少碳排放、心臟病跟癌症。
肉食需求暴增 畜牧業恐花光碳預算
隨著全球人口增加以及消費能力的成長，肉食需求也跟著暴增。
調查以最新的科學研究為基礎，指出由於中國和其他國家暴增的肉食需求，
可能讓全球陷入氣候危機。
報告估計，肉食需求直到2050年前還會成長75%，乳製品65%，
而榖物僅有40%。到了2020年，光是中國一個國家，每年將吃掉2千萬噸以上的肉和乳品。
根據兩份通過同儕審查的研究，照這個趨勢，到了2050年，
農業碳排放將用掉全世界的碳預算，其中畜牧業是最大宗。
這代表能源產業、工業、運輸業等其他產業必須達到零碳排，也就是根本「不可能」。
飲食習慣難改？ 已開發國家意願最低
報告中的消費者調查涵蓋美國、中國、印度、巴西和歐盟等12個國家。好消息是，
Bailey說：「未來的需求大部分來自中國和印度等比較傾向改變的國家。」
調查結果發現，人們對氣候變遷和衝擊的問題意識與行為改變的意願有關。
中國、印度和巴西消費者認同人類行為造成氣候變遷的比例，明顯比美國、英國和日本高；
但是肉類、乳製品消耗最多的已開發國家，對畜牧環境衝擊的意識和改變意願卻最低，Bailey對此表示相當失望。
編註：尼古拉．史登（Nicholas Stern），經濟學家、研究員以及作家。
2000至2003年擔任世界銀行首席經濟學家與資深副總裁，
曾經擔任歐洲復興開發銀行首席經濟學家、英國中央經濟研究中心（the Government Economic Service）主任、
財政部第二常務大臣（second permanent secretary），2006年受英國財政部委託，
提出著名的《史登報告》（Stern Review），以量化的方式計算地球暖化對全球經濟的影響。
現任倫敦政經學院政治經濟學帕特爾（I.G. Patel）講座教授、葛拉漢（Grantham）
氣候變遷與環境研究院院長和印度觀察（India Observatory）執行長。
參考資料：
1. 環境資訊中心, 畜牧業恐花光碳預算 學者籲少吃肉救地球, 2014年12月9日
【參考資料】
英國衛報（2014年12月3日），Eating less meat essential to curb climate change, says report
Eating less meat essential to curb climate change, says report
Global livestock industry produces more greenhouse gas emissions than transport but fear of a consumer backlash is preventing action, says Chatham House report
Meat and climate change : butcher in China
Dietary change is essential if global warming is not to exceed 2C, says report. Photograph: Brent Lewin/Getty Images
Curbing the world’s huge and increasing appetite for meat is essential to avoid devastating climate change, according to a new report. But governments and green campaigners are doing nothing to tackle the issue due to fears of a consumer backlash, warns the analysis from the thinktank Chatham House.
The global livestock industry produces more greenhouse gas emissions than all cars, planes, trains and ships combined, but a worldwide survey by Ipsos MORI in the report finds twice as many people think transport is the bigger contributor to global warming.
“Preventing catastrophic warming is dependent on tackling meat and dairy consumption, but the world is doing very little,” said Rob Bailey, the report’s lead author. “A lot is being done on deforestation and transport, but there is a huge gap on the livestock sector. There is a deep reluctance to engage because of the received wisdom that it is not the place of governments or civil society to intrude into people’s lives and tell them what to eat.”
The recent landmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that dietary change can “substantially lower” emissions but there is no UN plan to achieve that.
Past calls to cut meat eating by high-profile figures, from the chief of the UN’s climate science panel to the economist Lord Stern, have been both rare and controversial. Other scientists have proposed a meat tax to curb consumption, but the report concludes that keeping meat eating to levels recommended by health authorities would not only lower emissions but also reduce heart disease and cancer. “The research does not show everyone has to be a vegetarian to limit warming to 2C, the stated objective of the world’s governments,” said Bailey.
The report builds on recent scientific studies which show that soaring meat demand in China and elsewhere could tip the world’s climate into chaos. Emissions from livestock, largely from burping cows and sheep and their manure, currently make up almost 15% of global emissions. Beef and dairy alone make up 65% of all livestock emissions.
Appetite for meat is rocketing as the global population swells and becomes more able to afford meat. Meat consumption is on track to rise 75% by 2050, and dairy 65%, compared with 40% for cereals. By 2020, China alone is expected to be eating 20m tonnes more of meat and dairy a year.
Two recent peer-reviewed studies calculated that, without severe cuts in this trend, agricultural emissions will take up the entire world’s carbon budget by 2050, with livestock a major contributor. This would mean every other sector, including energy, industry and transport, would have to be zero carbon, which is described as “impossible”. The Chatham House report concludes: “Dietary change is essential if global warming is not to exceed 2C.”
The consumer survey in the report, covering 12 nations including the US, China, India, Brazil and the EU bloc, found a link between the awareness of climate change and its impacts and the willingness to change behaviour. Acceptance that human activities cause climate change was significantly higher in China, India and Brazil than in the US, UK and Japan.
The good news, said Bailey, was that “the majority of future demand appears to be in the countries [like China and Brazil] that are the most receptive to change”. He said it was “pretty disappointing” that in developed countries, where meat and dairy eating is highest, awareness of livestock’s impact on the climate is low and willingness to change is low.
Brigitte Alarcon, sustainable food policy officer at WWF said: “Our LiveWell project has shown we can cut a quarter of our climate emissions from the European food supply chain by eating more pulses, fruit and vegetables and by reducing our meat consumption. National governments should improve food education to encourage healthy eating habits and environmental sustainability as a first step.”
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A spokesman for the UK government said: “Greenhouse gas emissions from the UK agricultural industry have fallen by more than 20% since 1990. While food choices can have an impact on emissions, well managed livestock also provide many environmental benefits including supporting biodiversity.”
A separate survey by the Eating Better alliance, also published on Wednesday, shows that UK consumers are beginning to eat less meat. The YouGov poll found 20% saying they have cut the amount of meat they eat over the last year, with only 5% say they are eating more.
Prof Keith Richards, at the University of Cambridge and one of the researchers behind the two key scientific studies, said: “This is not a radical vegetarian argument; it is an argument about eating meat in sensible amounts as part of healthy, balanced diets.”
